DAY 14: High winds, high and dry in Nebraska

Still holding tight in Grand Island, Nebraska. Too many critical parameters fell apart today. Early on, I never could talk myself into going farther west or north given the eastward haul we have tomorrow. The triple point in South Dakota obviously was the play, but I just didn't want to go that far. So instead, we've spent the day documenting the crazy mini-haboobs everywhere created by the very high winds across Nebraska. Pretty impressive sights, and enough to be a 'consolation prize' for the day. We did manage to damage my driver side door by accidentally letting the wind slam the door open into a parked car at Wal-Mart. No damage to the other car, big dent in my door.

Like others, we're watching the development to our west - but not with much optimism. My pessimism is evident by the fact that we've already got a hotel room for the night here. Unless something compelling develops within reach, we're crashing early to get ready for tomorrow - which should be east of Des Moines, Iowa. Here are some shots from today.

The strong winds blowing across the recenty-planted fields kicked up large, dense clouds of dirt and dust.

Near Lincoln, Nebraska

Near Grand Island

Near York

In spots, the visibilities went to near zero in seconds.

Near York

Near York

18-wheelers were leaning precariously as the winds pushed them sideways.

Near Waco, NE

Near Grand Island

Flying pool in Grand Island

DAY 13: Charleston to Lincoln

Currently at the hotel on the west side of Lincoln, Nebraska after an 18-hour driving marathon. We left Charleston at 9AM Tuesday morning. The drive was routine, clear and sunny except for a few small storms in the Lexington-Louisville area. I'm too tired to post a lot of photos from the first leg of the trip, but here are a couple (more to come eventually). A very conditional forecast is on tap for Wednesday - the cap could keep the skies clear, or we could be watching a monster supercell. Parameters look good for tornadoes if a storm or two can break the cap.

Developing storm over Lexington

I-64 into St. Louis

I-70 east of Kansas City

Kansas City approach on I-70

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of June 5 June 5-10 100% No trip 0%

It's a GO!

$84.00! Just the diagnostic fee! Bearings on the condenser fan motor were dry, so the tech re-lubricated it and got it started again. Cool air is flowing from the vents again - and I'm going storm chasing this week!

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of June 4 June 5-10 95% No trip 5%

Chase trip: At the make or break point

The HVAC repair crew is on their way. Right now, this issue alone will be the primary factor in determining the length, and feasibility at all, of this trip. A repair bill of over $1,500 will mean no trip. Praying that it will be much less - I'll update with the verdict shortly.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of June 4 June 5-10 75% No trip 25%

Outbreak setup

SPC Day 3 outlook for Wednesday

With the Lord's blessing, I have mananged to budget for what I think may be the worst-case scenario for the possible repair bill that my HVAC system might end up needing today. I have enough funds to make the chase trip if it looks like a sure bet at tornadoes - and as it's looked all along, this morning it still appears that way. The parameters for tornadoes Wednesday look the most potent that we've seen all season, and nice southwest flow at 500mb continues on the Plains through the following days.

Wednesday's target is a long way away, in southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska - meaning we might have to take the Route 35 road out of West Virginia up through Indianapolis and Chicago. Those are notoriously high traffic areas, meaning we'll need as much travel time as possible. Providing that the central air system repair doesn't go over budget, we'll plan for a departure early tomorrow morning - which should get us to a preliminary target of Souix Falls in plenty of time.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of June 4 June 5-10 75% No trip 25%

We're back!

Before I say anything, take a look at these.

GFS 500mb wind forecast for Wednesday

GFS surface dewpoint forecast for Wednesday

GFS surface pattern forecast for Wednesday

Those three images above, taken from the 00z run of the GFS model, paint the picture of a classic strong, wide-area tornado outbreak from Texas to Nebraska on Wednesday if it comes close to actually happening as shown. Thursday and Friday look like potent setups as well. This is one of those 'too good to say no' setups that has breathed at least one last breath into the hopes for our 2007 Chase Expedition.

The main negative right now, and it is a big one, is the cap. The cap is a layer of warm air above the surface that prevents the buoyant warm, moist air below from rising to create thunderstorms. Normally, a strong cap is a good thing as it keeps storms from becoming too numerous too early. Too many storms will rob each other's needed balance to become fully organized, and a strong cap will keep storms more isolated. However, too strong of a cap can mean no storms at all, and this appears to be a likely case for Wednesday. The cap is usually forecast using the temperature plot at the 700mb layer.

GFS 700mb temp forecast for Wednesday

A cap of 10 degrees C is considered a strong but breakable cap, but 12C and above is considered harder to break. The precip forecast for Wednesday confirms this concern, with only light precip returns plotted in the extreme northern section of the highest risk area.

GFS precip forecast for Wednesday

In a nutshell, Wednesday looks like a classic tornado day in northern Kansas and Nebraska that would be well worth making a trip for - in the event that one or two supercells can break through the cap. If the cap remains as strong or stronger than forecast, then we may just sit this one out. If the trip is a go, we would need to leave early on Tuesday, with a likely return on Saturday or Sunday.

Non-weather factors will play a major role in this trip being a reality. Two out of our four-man crew will likely not be able to make a trip this week, so that will be an issue we'll have to address - especially with fuel costs so high. Secondly, my home central air conditioner's compressor died today - which may be a financial death blow to any more chasing trips. I will probably have an estimate on repairs by Monday.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of June 3 June 5-10 50% No trip 50%

Chase 2007: Shutting it down

A review of my depleted spring chase trip funds, as well as the persistently poor severe weather outlook for the Great Plains through June 11, has brought on the decision to bring this year's chasing standby period - and our series of planned expeditions - to an early close. This turned out to be an early season, which we took full advantage of to the tune of 12 tornado intercepts. That's a good number for any year, and we did well in choosing the right times to use our trip funds. By all means, our spring 2007 chase season was a success.

Barring an unexpected funding source for additional travel and an unusually sudden development of a strong western trough, this post marks the end of the Chase Expedition forecasting excercises and discussions, and the return of this blog to full-time 'normal' status. As always, the end of spring severe weather season does not mean the end of our storm chasing activities, which continue year-round as conditions warrant and funding allows.

As always, your readership during this spring season was appreciated. I hope you'll stay tuned for our occasional summer weather documentation projects, which will include flash flooding, more (upward moving) tower lightning, landfalling hurricanes and more. Otherwise, be sure to check back with us in April of 2008 for the next Great Plains storm season!

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 26 May 23-30 0.25% May 31-June 5 0.25% June 6-12 0.25% Non-Plains chase trip 0.25% No trip 99%

Waiting for clarity

It is difficult to make sense of the past couple of model runs, which have not been as consistent as I'd like. The last couple of GFS runs place a compact and strengthening 500mb trough taking shape over the northern Plains on Tuesday and moving eastward. The position of the trough and attendant moisture at the surface suggest severe weather events as follows: Nebraska to North Dakota on Tuesday 29th, Iowa and Minnesota on Wednesday the 30th, Iowa and Wisconsin on Thursday the 31st, and northern Indiana and Ohio on June 1. After that, it looks generally unsettled across the eastern US, with severe storms a good possibility in spots every day.

Long-range models haven't changed much today for the Plains, still with no sign of a good western trough.

It's too early to nail down the specifics, but right now I'm leaning toward gearing up to chase whatever comes up next week, whether it is in Illinois, Ohio, New York or North Carolina.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 25 May 23-30 1% May 31-June 5 10% June 6-12 39% Non-Plains chase trip 45% No trip 5%

Carolina-Appalachian chase expedition?

We're breathing a sigh of relief after seeing the meager and difficult chase days in the Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. Initially, those two days looked like marginal tornado setups, so we chose not to travel to be there for them. Then suddenly, the setup gained much better potential after we'd already decided to sit them out. Like nervous game show contestants who passed on Door #1, we anxiously watched the events unfold, cringing at what we might have lost out on when 'Door #1' was opened. While there were a few tornadoes, they were either challenging intercepts, weak and/or short-lived. While I don't wish a bad chase day for other chasers who are out when we're not, it is certainly good to see our choice end up being the right one.

Nonetheless, when we start looking at what is ahead, there's not much reason to relish in our decision not to chase this week. Run after run, the models just aren't giving us any hope - not even the slightest glimmer of a western US trough. It's not over until it's over - but I'm quickly running out of optimism for the remainder of tornado season on the Plains.

Now for the silver lining. What the models do show is a large, strong trough developing mid-USA and moving east. The southwest flow looks very intense across the Southeast, Appalachians, Carolinas and mid-Atlantic during the first week of June, which could mean some severe weather outbreaks right here at home and close by in the surrounding regions.

GFS 500mb forecast for June 6

Climatologically, tornado probabilities should be low with this type of setup, as we suffer from the lack of a dryline and a deep moisture 'conveyor' in this part of the country. The mountains also disrupt good southerly inflow. The other big negative I see is that the winds in the lower atmosphere are the same direction as the 500mb level, a configuration that lacks the 'directional shear' that supercells need to thrive in, and a big low pressure system may introduce widespread cloud cover. But give us a nice surface low, a warm front, and a portion of clearing sky, and we may have enough to produce a tornado event. Definately something to watch.

After the trough moves east, the GFS shows the belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow diving southeast across the Great Lakes, down across Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania, and finally sweeping across the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic. With typical late spring sunshine and surface moisture, this could set the stage for some northwest flow severe weather events. While the chances for tornadoes would be slim with those, some good lightning shows could be in store for us without having to drive more than a few hours away.

Will this system be enough to get us on the road for a multi-day chase in brand-new territory (as far as a planned chase expedition)? We'll have to see. If the models keep trending toward this possibility, we'll start planning for it more seriously.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 24 May 23-30 1% May 31-June 5 10% June 6-12 39% Non-Plains chase trip 25% No trip 25%

Three more weeks

After a few days' break from storm chasing, it's time again to check in with the outlook for the season. The good news today is that we have three more weeks left in our chasing standby period, which ends on June 13. The bad news is that the models have not been painting a nice picture for storm chasers the first two of those three weeks, and tonight's new 00z GFS run is no exception. As we've said time and time again, the extended GFS model is very flaky past 7 days - however its consistency in not portraying a major western trough from days 8-14 is enough to at least base a general forecast on. The 10-day ECMWF model also is not showing anything of interest through the first of June.

With the quietness of the outlook ahead, it turns out this week may have been the time to make our trip after all, with an easy tornado day in the Plains on Tuesday and another one likely today. But, hindsight's 20/20, and I'm not upset about it. We made our decision to wait based on the best information we had at the time. Besides, the early catches this year have already made for a successful season, and anything more will be icing on the cake.

And the season is not over yet! The period from June 6 through June 13 is beyond the reach of long-range models and any realistic forecasting capabilities, so it's still entirely possible for something big to develop during that time frame. There's no way to tell right now if it will be bad or good. And still even so for June 1 through June 5, the current period on the long-range GFS most prone to unreliability. There is still plenty of time left for a better outlook to take shape, so we can't close out the 2007 chase season just yet.

In a nutshell, all this means essentally that our chase expedition hinges on the forecast for June 6-13 (and to a lesser extent June 1-5). Our updated probability table reflects this.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 23 May 23-30 1% May 31-June 5 19% June 6-12 40% No trip 40%

June or bust

We're nearly past the point of no return for arranging a trip for next week, as the setup for Monday-Wednesday still looks too short-lived and meager (aside from Tuesday). With flights that need to be arranged and other items, we'd need to make a final decision today - which isn't going to happen. My solo trips are over for this year, so it's either the main expedition this time or nothing.

The models are all over the place for early June, ranging from a big trough in the eastern US to a big trough remaining too far west, both scenarios being bad for storm chasing on the Plains.

There are two factors for me personally that are beginning to erode the chances for an expedition at all. The first is available trip funds. After two trips out west, a third one will use up the last of the travel funds I have left for the spring. As I've said before, I don't want to spend those for anything less than a very potent setup. I'd rather save them for next year if things continue as they have been the past two weeks. Second, and most importantly, I have several big summer projects that I can't start on until chase season ends. We've been in intensive 'chase standby' mode for over a month now, and I'm anxious to move on and get back to 'real life'. We've already had plenty of success this season and I'm more than satisfied.

So, for the first time in the history of the probability table, 'no trip' will get the largest percentages today. The atmosphere really has some work to do in impressing me before that changes. Now it's looking like June or nothing. We also have had to move our standby end date up to the 12th due to several commitments.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 19 May 19-25 2% May 26-31 8% June 1-7 25% June 8-12 25% No trip 40%

Holding out for June

As the arrival of next week's system gets closer, the models' depiction of it generally can be trusted more and more. Right now, out of the whole system next week, Tuesday looks like it holds the best chance for tornadoes in a string of less-than-perfect setups. The trough kicks into the Plains, with strong winds aloft over top of 60s+F dewpoints. The hotspot on the GFS at this point appears to be central Kansas once again.

GFS 500mb forecast for May 22

GFS surface dewpoint forecast for May 22

Tuesday is the only day that I see on the models that has any real promise. Other days, the moisture is either too meager or too far south of the strong upper-level winds. Interestingly enough, Thursday looks like it could produce some significant severe weather in Ohio, with the front end of the strong 500mb trough blasting over good moisture at the surface. I think we may be missing a marginal tornado day on Tuesday by doing this, but I still believe that waiting for something more significant and longer-lived in June is the better plan.

That said, the past few days of model runs have still not shown any consistent signals of a strong western trough. All we can do is wait.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 18 May 16-18 0% May 19-25 15% May 26-June 2 15% June 3-15 40% No trip 30%

Not impressed yet

The 12Z model runs are now out, and I still don't see much to get excited about for next week. The trough is shown digging a little further south now, which is better than yesterday's outlook. However, the trough itself is a shadow of what we really look for. The flow around it does not look particularly strong, and it really seems to want to fall apart about mid-week. Moisture is still going to be an issue too. Another big player is a cold front likely being the primary forcing mechanism, which favors linear storms rather than isolated supercells. This looks eearily similar to May 22-26 of last year, but a little further south. Beyond next week, nothing of interest is showing up on any models.

Some might say I'm being too pessimistic, but remember, we have four of us traveling more than 1,200 miles to make it to the Plains. We are dealing with a high cost/low risk level to make the trip next week. Those who live in Oklahoma/Texas/Kansas have the luxury of being optimistic about next week, because it only costs them a tank of gas a day to chase whatever comes up. For them, it's either a low cost/low risk chase, or a low cost/high risk chase - low cost either way. Our cost is high either way, low risk or high risk - so naturally we wait for the higher risks. If I lived out there, I'd be more excited about next week too, because I wouldn't have much to lose by going out. We do have a lot to lose if we come home empty-handed. If we waste the last of our trip funds on next week, only to have a banner tornado setup take shape in early June, then we'd really regret it.

Moisture problems, capping, cold frontal forcing, weak winds aloft and a short window of opportunity (only one or two chase days) - those are just too many negatives with next week's setups for us to make a major trip for it. Now I'm not saying that there will definately not be tornadoes next week - there very well might be. But again, the chances are just to low for us. It's the whole high cost/low risk thing.

Barring a significant strengthening of the forecast trough and improved moisture issues for next week, we'll still keep our attention to the possibility of something showing up in early June.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 16 May 16-18 0% May 19-25 10% May 26-June 2 20% June 3-15 45% No trip 25%

Still on the roller coaster

My last forecast post was during a time when things were looking pretty dismal for the return of chaseable weather on the Great Plains. Now, the GFS is starting to come in to line with the ECMWF on developing an OK-looking western trough and pushing it through the Plains next week.

GFS 500mb forecast for May 22

Notice how far north the trough is compared to the last ones. This would suggest the severe weather area setting up from northern Kansas into the Dakotas. Now here's the problem. Here is a look at the current surface map for Oklahoma (current as of this post).

Current surface observations

Notice the wind is pushing the air southward, with widespread dewpoints in the 40s (very low for this time of year). This is due to the passage of a cold front that is surging way down into the Gulf of Mexico. The gist of this is that the moisture situation on the Plains is being 'reset' back to the drawing board. Moisture is one of the critical ingredients for tornadic supercells, so until the dewpoints climb back to the 60s and 70s underneath that approaching trough, the trough will be of little consequence other than a good round of hail and lightning-producing storms. Until the winds turn back northward, the Gulf moisture cannot flow back onto the Great Plains. For this reason, I'm not too excited about the upcoming trough.

However, things are apt to change. A quick turnaround of the winds can rapidly bring the moisture back, and the trough could end up a little further south. It's all to early to tell right now. I'm still more inclined to wait for a better trough with deeper moisture (if we do get one), so we'll keep our higher probabilities on the post-Memorial Day period.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 16 May 16-18 0% May 19-25 10% May 26-June 2 30% June 3-15 40% No trip 20%

June? Forecast update for May 14

I've been waiting all day for the last of the 12Z model runs to come out before posting this update (the ECMWF is always dead last in the update sequence), but even before then I was rapidly losing confidence in the trough forecast for May 21-24. The 12z models confirm the concerns. The trough will be a far northern Plains and even Canadian event, and a very short-lived and marginal one at that - maybe able to squeak out one or two chase days. The probabilities for tornado intercepts at this stage, while still present, just look too low for us to consider at this point. The models have been fairly consistent and in agreement about this pattern, which means the likelihood of a major about-face of the forecast pattern is low.

After the small May 21-24 trough pushes eastward, the models suggest another stout ridge locking itself in place across the central USA, shutting down severe weather on the Plains for another extended time. This is pushing back the possibility of a western trough, and our departure, beyond June 1. June is getting higher probabilities in our table simply because it is looking like the last chance for something to happen before our standby period ends on the 15th. Due to 1.) our high standards for the upper air and surface patterns, 2.) there being only two more weeks beyond the ridged-out pattern during June 1-15, and 3.) the fact that we've already completed two full trips - means that the 'no trip' probability unfortunately must increase as well.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 14 May 14-18 0% May 19-25 10% May 26-June 2 25% June 3-15 45% No trip 20%

Forecast update #2 for May 13

Here we go on the roller coaster. Some interesting developments are starting to show up on the horizon of the ECMWF, another long-range model that we consult along with the GFS. The ECMWF is painting a very different scenario for the period starting around 10 days from now.

ECMWF 500mb forecast for May 22

GFS 500mb forecast for May 22

It's a toss-up now. If this trough becomes reality and slows down enough to allow good moisture return from the Gulf, we may be in business for late next week. I'm a little concerned about how far north the trough is appearing at this point, but that will change as we get closer to the date.

For now, we need to go back on alert for a possible departure as early as next Sunday.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 13 May 12-18 1% May 19-25 32% May 26-June 2 32% June 3-15 32% No trip 3%

Forecast update for May 13

A small but potent-looking trough is now showing up on the models for the May 22-24 period, affecting the northern Plains from Nebraska to North Dakota. This feature looks strikingly similar to the one that we chased in late May of 2006. As such, I'm not too excited about it. After the prolonged ridge, moisture will be lacking that far north, just as it was last May. While a tornado event can't be ruled out with this system, I feel the probabilities will be too low to warrant the extra-long drive to the northern Plains.

The models still trend toward a western troughing scenario for May 26 and beyond, though the newest model runs are keeping it too far to the west over the Pacific ocean through May 29. This pattern still keeps ridging/northwest flow persisting over the Plains. The GFS even suggests the start of an omega block pattern on May 28-29 with troughs in the east and west and a ridge over the Plains. Interestingly, this model forecast also was seen in May of 2006. That would be a cause for concern if that pattern keeps steady on future model runs. More likely than not, though, we're dealing with a 'flop' in the 'flip flopping' of the models - so we won't get excited/worried yet, or even change our probability table at this point.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 13 May 12-18 4% May 19-25 15% May 26-June 2 42% June 3-15 36% No trip 3%

Final chase report: May 5 tornadoes

The completed chase log for Saturday, May 5 is now online, now that I've been home long enough to go through some of the material from Trip #2. More from the rest of the trip will follow in the coming days!

Forecast update for May 12

Just a quick note to comment on the nice trough showing up on the extended GFS model for the May 27-29 time frame.

GFS 500mb forecast for May 27

Again, this is too far away to make any solid plans, due to the unreliability of models beyond 7 days. However, this trough has been consistently showing up on the models for the past couple of days, allowing for a little higher confidence that this general pattern might be a good possibility. What we won't know is exactly how deep the trough will be, how far north or south it will end up, or if it will vanish from the forecast altogether. Its very presence now, however, warrants a slight adjustment to our probability table.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 12 May 12-18 4% May 19-25 15% May 26-June 2 42% June 3-15 36% No trip 3%

Plan B idea - just in case

Tonight's latest run of the extended models paints a two-week downtime for tornadic storm potential on the Great Plains, with the first sign of a western trough showing up only on the 16th day of the GFS output. That's a long way out to affect any of our plans, however, the models have been quite consistent in keeping things quiet in the Plains for the bulk of mid-May. This is nothing to be concerned about, as our chase standby period runs until June 15. Looking back at climatology, it is extremely rare for there to be no fewer than a handful of excellent tornado days in late May and early June.

However, after 2006's meager setups that took us as far north as Bismarck, ND in search of anything to chase, I've considered another option if the rest of the season ends up being just as bone-dry for tornadoes as 2006: an east-of-the-Mississippi chase expedition. Here's the deal. A 2006-like late May/early June would provide us with little more than some lightning and hail photo/video opportunities out on the Plains. If that's all we could expect to see, here's the thing - we can get those types of storms east of the Mississippi! There would be no need to drive the extra 500-800 miles to the Plains to see what we could easily get in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Kentucky, to name a few locations. All the more so if the only storms end up in the Dakotas like they did in 2006. In that case, chasing the eastern lower Midwest would save us thousands of miles and hundreds in fuel costs to get the same subjects.

The eastern lower Midwest - Illinois, Indiana and Ohio in particular - have a lot of flat, Plains-like terrain and plenty of severe weather action in the spring. While not as prolific as a good Plains setup, these areas get their fair share of supercells and tornadoes during the season as well. Instead of cancelling our trip altogether in the event of a ridged-out Tornado Alley, this option would allow us to get out and chase for some good lightning and hail footage/stills - still with a small chance for tornado intercepts - all for half the cost, or less, than a full Plains chase trip. In fact, I would actually look forward to an organized chase trip in this area if we ended up doing it. It's something different - that to my knowledge few chasers have done before. There would be a lot of new territory to explore - new roads, new terrain, new scenery and no chaser crowds.

Now again, I don't expect this year's season to come to that, but if it does, I feel like getting out on the road to chase something is better than either staying home all spring or spending thousands driving from Texas to North Dakota. It keeps us with something to look forward to if the Plains goes dry for the season. In retrospect, I feel like chasing the eastern Midwest in 2006 would have resulted in much of the same type of video and photos we got for less than half the cost and a fourth of the miles. Come to think of it, in 2006, a lot of chasers from the Plains ended up in Indiana and Ohio anyway!

If the season looks like it may end up being as dismal as 2006, I'll add the eastern Midwest chase trip option to our probabilty table. For now, since we may have this alternative to not chasing at all in the event of a dead season in the Plains, I'll reduce the 'no trip' probabilty to reflect the contingency plan.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 11 May 12-18 4% May 19-25 15% May 26-June 2 39% June 3-15 39% No trip 3%

The Great Plains in Pictures

(Just a warning, this is a huge photo post!) The combination of the beauty of the Plains and a new digital camera equals me taking hundreds of photos. It's a little like when I got my first Pentax K1000 back in 1993 and went crazy shooting every object I saw. I have to say I'm really pleased with this new camera. For it not being a mighty DSLR it is definately worth the money spent. My old 4700 would average 15 or so pictures per battery charge, and I'd need three sets of rechargable batteries to get through a chase day. This new camera's first set of batteries finally died on Wednesday, the last day of Trip #2. That's 7 days of shooting 120-180 photos per day. During Tuesday's lightning shoot, I had the camera on continuously for over two hours doing time exposures. Even with 180 photos on a single day, I never came close to using up the 1GB card. Talk about major improvements!

So on to the photos. Storm chasing's hectic schedule unfortunately does not allow for stopping to shoot all the cool and scenic non-weather sights you see on the Plains, and there are a ton of them. But, here and there you do get a little time. You'll notice the long-dormant railfan in me coming out in many of these shots. Papa, if you're able to read this somehow, these are for you.

Classic Plains highway

Near Protection, Kansas

Near Kingfisher, Oklahoma

Kinsley, Kansas

Near Sentinel, Oklahoma

Classic Plains town - Larned, Kansas

Near Spearville, Kansas

Pratt, Kansas

Cumulus in the sky, bugs on the windshield

Kinsley, Kansas

Morning storm in Medford, Oklahoma

Chasing does this to a new car in 2 years.

Near Sentinel, Oklahoma

Near Sentinel, Oklahoma

Spearville, Kansas

Kinsley, Kansas

Near Offerle, Kansas

Tulsa skyline

Tulsa Sapulpa Union Railway - Sapulpa, Oklahoma

Tiny Wal-Marts are common on the Plains

Time to roll up the windows and turn of the AC. Stockyard near Dodge City, Kansas

Near Kingfisher, Oklahoma

Weatherford, Oklahoma wind farm

Bright trees and sky on the way home along I-44 near St. Louis

Near Medford, Oklahoma

Offerle, Kansas

Near Kingfisher, Oklahoma

Back home - Trip #2 stats and looking ahead again

I just arrived back in Charleston this evening, finishing up the 7th day of travel for Trip #2 (the 13th day of travel overall this season). Here are the stats for Trip #2:

States: 7
Chase days: 3
Tornadoes: 8
Miles: 3,800

Season totals as of May 9:
States: 8
Chase days: 7
Tornadoes: 12
Miles: 6,900

12 tornado intercepts (including an F5) and almost 7,000 miles, and we still have yet to start our main planned trip! Now that Trip #2 is over, it's back to model watching for what will be our third and most likely final expedition, the one that all four of us will be embarking on (Bill, Tom, Matt and I).

After this exceptionally active late April and early May, the models indicate the Great Plains will be slipping back into a quiet pattern for quite some time. In fact, the extended GFS suggests that things will be inactive for two weeks or more, with no good western 500mb trough showing up through day 16. During this 'down time' though, good moisture will be present on the Plains, with a periodically decent dryline and surface low pressure systems developing every few days on the Front Range. This could make for some Front Range and high Plains severe weather episodes, but little in the way of tornado potential (aside from the isolated Colorado landspout). Despite the ingredients for storms in the lower levels of the atmosphere being present, without the support of strong mid- and upper-level southwest winds from a nice western trough, classic tornadic supercells will be hard to come by.

So, we'll prepare for an extended downtime for a week or two while we wait for the Plains to wake up again. The wild card in all of this is the long-range models' well-known reputation for flip-flopping. It wouldn't be surprising to me for a western trough to suddenly start showing up for next week in the next few days of model runs. For that reason, we won't completely take our eyes off of the forecast while we wait out the 'downtime'.

You'll notice in our table below that I increased the 'no trip' probability from 2 to 5 percent. This is due to the fact that we've already had nearly two weeks of chasing travel days over the course of the two unplanned chase trips. While I still have a budget for the main trip, it will definately be a little tighter. Therefore, I've raised the standards even higher for the quality of a severe weather setup that would result in us chasing. In other words, the main trip will only be made in the event of a well-above-average strong system that has a high potential for tornadoes. However, we're coming up on the peak of tornado season in the Plains, so I don't expect that to not occur.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2007 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 9 May 12-18 10% May 19-25 21% May 26-June 2 32% June 3-15 32% No trip 5%

DAY 12: (Trip #2, Day 6): Red Bud, Illinois lightning

You'll notice I skipped over Day 11, since essentially all I did yesterday was sleep at the hotel in Tulsa after a 36-hour chasing marathon. Several rounds of storms moved through Tulsa, but I was too tired to pay attention.

I left Tulsa before noon on Tuesday and headed east on I-44, planning to stop in St. Louis for the night. As I arrived in St. Louis, a lone cluster of storms fired at sunset about 60 miles southeast of town. I drove south for about 30 miles to the town of Red Bud, the same town we launched our intercept of the Crosstown F4 tornado on September 22 of last year.

My goal with these storms was to see how competent my new digital camera, the Fuji S700, was with lightning photography. The results came out better than I had hoped for a $250 camera. Little to no noise, crisp bolts with good detail. As with most cameras, shooting lightning with this one was pretty simple - set on manual mode with the maximum 4-second exposure with an aperture between f4.5 and f5.6. The only problem with the camera was that its refresh rate between exposures is about 5 to 7 seconds long, meaning you're more likely to miss bolts than catch them. Nonetheless, tonight's test proves I can trust this camera to do more lightning in the future.

Here are a few shots (some of these are crops).

Lightning at Red Bud, Illinois

Greensburg, KS chase log and video

I finished a final report on the Greensburg tornado intercept with more frame grabs and a long video clip located here. For an unknown reason, my VX2100 was suffering from a strange glitch during this event where blue static/artifacts flickered on the screen periodically. That's the first time that occured, and it hasn't done it since. This glitch is not evident in the screen grabs.

Phone calls during chases

I've run into a problem recently that I need to address briefly on this blog. When we're out on the road, we tend to get flooded with phone calls from friends, family and other chasers. This would be fine except for the fact that a chaser's schedule is often a hectic marathon with irregular sleep/awake patterns. The numerous phone calls lately have become a safety issue in that many calls have come 'in the heat of the chase' when we're trying to navigate wet roads in and around tornadic thunderstorms, observing the storm environment and shooting video. Chasing is an extreme excercise in multitasking, and there just isn't time to chat on the phone. Phone calls during this time jeopardize our safety and concentration on the tasks at hand. Other times, the calls interfere with the few precious hours of sleep that we try to get at any opportunity we can. Since many days find us getting to bed very late - sleeping during the morning, or even into the afternoon on a down day, are neccessary for us to catch up on the lost rest to ensure our ability to continue safely the next day.

I don't want to downplay everyone's concern about our well-being out on the road, I do genuinely appreciate it. That's why I try to make it a priority to update this blog every day with at least a quick post about where we are and what we've seen. So in the future, unless there is an emergency, please save your phone calls until after our trip is over. I promise we'll take the time to tell you everything you want to hear when we get back!

DAY 10 (Trip #2, Day 4): Wind turbines and tower lightning

Storms just couldn't get it together on Sunday. I still had a good day, the most interesting experience being the Weatherford, OK wind turbines turning to face the outflow from storms moving in from the west. After that, it was an all-night lightning shoot at the Oklahoma City 'tower farm'.

Video clip: Timelapse of gust front and wind turbines - WMV, 5MB

Wind turbines at Weatherford

Turned nearly 180 degrees

Tower lightning in Oklahoma City

Greensburg tornado rated EF5

Word has it that the Greensburg wedge tornado was just rated EF5, the first F5 rating since May 3, 1999. I just looked at the aerials of the damage and it is beyond words. The town is, with no exaggeration, literally gone. I am feeling humbled, saddened and priveleged all at the same time to have been able to see and film this tornado and its aftermath. I never thought I'd see an F5 in my lifetime. As soon as the chasing marathons end, I will post more images and video from Greensburg.

Currently in Clinton, Oklahoma pondering the next move. Today is an even tougher forecast than yesterday.

DAY 9 (Trip #2, Day 3): More Kansas tornadoes

Five more tornadoes today from St. John to Larned, including another instance of two at the same time. This brings the 2007 season tally to 12! Photography was challenging today due to the fast-moving storms, the briefness of the tornadoes, and/or low light. I didn't really get any usable imagery today. Again, it's late and another chase day awaits, so this preliminary report will be brief.

Rope tornado with debris south of St. John

At the same time as the above

Tornado with Friday damage in foregreound

Rapidly spinning wall cloud south of St. John

Two of the tornadoes didn't last long enough for me to pull over and get pictures, so all I have is the tail-end of the dissipating funnels.

Tornado #2

Tornado #3

May 4 Woodward, OK LP
Here are a few shots of the LP supercell near Woodward, OK yesterday.

DAY 8 (Trip #2, Day 2): Kansas nighttime tornado outbreak

An intense and tragic day in Kansas tonight. We documented three tornadoes - a massive wedge tornado as it hit Greensburg, Kansas, and soon after, two more tornadoes in progress at the same time. Before that, we documented an impressive LP supercell near Woodward, Oklahoma. Today has been a long and exhausting day, and Saturday looks to be a major outbreak, so I don't have time to post much now. Here are a few video grabs:

Wedge tornado at Greensburg, KS

Second tornado near Greensburg, KS

Third tornado descends next to second

Power flash from Greensburg wedge

DAY 7 (Trip #2, Day 1): Charleston to Salina

SPC tornado outlook for today

I just arrived here in Salina, Kansas. I've already got my mobile workstation set up at the hotel to look at data for tomorrow. All I can say is, what a time this could be for chasers the next four days!

My trip west today marked my 14th Great Plains chase expedition in 7 years. The journey today was unusual in two ways. One, for the first time, I made the entire drive to my preliminary target in one straight shot, thanks to the early departure. That's 15 continuous driving hours from Charleston to Salina, with a few very short gas stops. Every other time, I've stopped just west of St. Louis to sleep for the night before resuming the drive.

The second unusual thing about this trip is that I did not see the sun or blue sky once, not even a small break in the clouds. The entire I-64/I-70 corridor from West Virginia to Kansas was completely socked in with clouds and rain. I drove through light to moderate rain off and on the whole trip. Usually, driving such a long distance means I will cross two or three weather patterns, mostly sunny weather with an area of clouds and precip somewhere along the way. This is the first time that it was cloudy and rainy literally the whole way. Thankfully the rain was not heavy enough to slow traffic.

On to more about the drive. I put my new camera through the paces today to document the trip, so this post is loaded with photos. My meeting this morning was thankfully short, allowing me to head west just before 11:00AM EDT.

WV vegetation on I-64 at Huntington

Exiting WV at noon

Morehead, Kentucky barn and spring vegetation

I encountered the first moderate rain near Lexington, which lasted for about an hour.

Dealing with rain on I-64

Things started to clear up by Louisville, though fog and mist covered the tops of the buildings downtown.

Louisville in the fog

Indiana's trees weren't as far along in the greening process as the ones in WV and KY.

Indiana trees

Some fields in Indiana and Illinois were filled with bright yellow flowers. I'm not sure what these are, but I see them every time I pass by here in the spring.

Bright yellow Indiana fields

I made it to St. Louis at 5:30PM CDT, right in the middle of their evening rush hour and another bout of moderate rain. Traffic was slow outbound on I-70 but not as bad as I thought.

Familiar scene entering St. Louis

I-70 in central Missouri

Missouri river bridge on I-70

This break in the low and mid level cloud deck near Boonville was the closest I got to seeing the sky. A high cirrostratus layer kept the sun and the visible sky at bay.

Clouds trying to break unsuccessfully

Unlike my old 4700, my new camera has manual shutter speed and aperture controls for a maximum of a 4-second exposure. I tested it out on downtown Kansas City when I passed through after sunset. The noise I expected in the longer exposures was not bad at all. I might even be able to catch some lightning with this camera.

Kansas City

Kansas City

Triple trailers are legal in Kansas.

Triple UPS tractor trailer

Topeka actually has a decent skyline, but I didn't have time to scout out a nice vantage point (IE, one without a huge streetlight in the way).

Topeka

At the target

Tomorrow's target looks like Great Bend to Russell to Dodge City to Meade. Several possibilites are in play for Friday's setup, all within a few horus of here. I'm heading to bed now as I'll need the rest for the upcoming chase days.

Once again, the probability table for the main trip will go on hiatus while I'm on the Plains.

Trip #2 a go, for now

SPC outlook for Friday

Tonight's 00z model runs are now out, and both the GFS and NAM/WRF are still showing precipitation in central and northern Kansas on both Friday and Saturday evenings. SPC's new Day 2 outlook (above) reflects the favorable setup. Precip showing up in the forecasted high-instability, moderately-capped, high-shear environment means that supercells are likely. Since I have the luxury this time of waiting until the last possible minute (1:30PM EDT) for the SPC's afternoon Day 2 outlook and the morning's 12z model runs, I'll hold off on making an absolute decision about leaving until early afternoon. Nonetheless, at this point I'm about 90% sure I'm heading west after my meeting at work.

Western Kansas is a long haul from here, so I might go ahead and leave immediately after my meeting just to get a jump on the drive. I need to make at least Salina, Kansas, which is about 16 hours away. That gives me some time for rest without too much driving in the morning.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date: