Raleigh vehicle clean-out and reconfiguration

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(Fisheye lens photos on this post by Matt Robinson) The weather in Raleigh has become perfect for chase vehicle work - and we haven't let that opportunity pass by. Yesterday afternoon, I started the process of removing everything from the car for its annual clean-out and tweaking in preparation for the upcoming chase season. If you're new to the blog this year, the reason the Raleigh house is optimal for this is the one-acre yard on the semi-rural outskirts of town. This provides a large, flat and safe space where multiple cars can be parked, opened up and worked on for days. This is in contrast to my options in Charleston, which would involve trying to do everything while parked on the side of a city street.

While we had the cleaning supplies, shop vacs and steam cleaner out, Matt and his wife Beth joined in on the process with their cars. I've been thinking that this would be a good basis for a pre-season chaser cookout, where everyone brings tools and an extra set of hands to help get vehicles ready for the season. There was a chaser group in Indiana that had events like this several years ago, and I always thought it was a good idea. Maybe I'll look into planning something for next season.

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The main accomplishment yesterday was getting the car vacuumed and the interior wiped down, followed by the re-running and bundling of the front wiring for the laptop and USB devices. The rear cables leading to the power console need sprucing up, but since there are still questions about what devices will be going in there in the next two days, that process will likely hold off until tomorrow when some new equipment arrives.

Cellular router and console

The shipment of my Cradlepoint aircard router and external cellular antenna should arrive around midday Friday. At that point, the task will be building the console on which the aircard, the router, the voice-over-IP box and a telephone will be mounted. This portable 'access point' will be designed to fit in the car, while being easily removed to carry indoors for home and office use. The access point console is the biggest project of the week and the most significant addition to the chase vehicle technology. With it, I will have full internet access via WIFI and VOIP telephone service virtually everywhere I go.

Chasecam config update

The live chase camera will be running in one of two different modes this season, with a different configuration needed for each. The 'static image mode' is the one I plan to use most of the time. In static mode, the chase cam image will be captured once every 30 to 60 seconds and FTPed to the web server (just like the current webcams have been running). The Alltel connection has no problem with doing this, and since it uses very little processing resources on the computer side, will be run on the old Dell laptop along with the WxWorx software. For 'streaming mode', the camera will need to be plugged into the new HP dual-core laptop. Even if streaming works well (I haven't been able to test it yet), I don't plan to do it that often, as I don't want to put excessive strain on the laptops and the aircard connection. I will likely only stream on big chase days, and then only during the storm interception portion of the chase. Otherwise, the camera will run in static image mode.

Chase expedition forecast

Models show a developing large western US upper trough beginning to affect the Plains next week. Moisture quality in the Plains is very poor currently, but in the next few days should slowly return to favorable levels for severe storms. While none of the days next week look like major tornado outbreaks, they do look like the types of setups that will produce one or two good isolated supercells that may be very chaser-friendly. Regardless of this, I don't see how we'll be able to leave before May 1 due to work schedules and my still-recovering chase trip budget. Due to logistical and financial reasons, I expect that any chase trip will need to wait until at least after May 10 or so. As always, that can change.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2008 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of April 17 May 1-10 7% May 11-20 11% May 21-31 11% June 1-15 11% No trip 60%

Preparing for a sidelined season

My optimism for a Plains chase expedition happening this year was already on the way out even before the viewfinder on my Sony FX1 flickered Sunday evening, then started showing what looked like a scrambled cable TV channel picture. On top of everything else - my tax-obliterated travel funds, skyrocketing gas prices, no concrete team commitments, a high-mileage vehicle, slow sales in March and April, a business in need of attention and now critical equipment in need of a major repair are just not surmountable obstacles before spring is over. In the midst of the 'perfect storm' of circumstances in both their magnitude and timing, I have worked to find a way to make things happen this year, but all options are coming up short. Some things just aren't meant to be - fighting against it not only doesn't make a difference, but just makes the inevitable harder to accept. Strangely enough, resigning to the impossibility of this year's trip actually comes as a bit of a relief.

I believe that everything works out for good not only because the Scriptures say so, but because I've seen it happen before. Taking a look at past year's intercepts leaves me with no justification to sulk about this season. I've been blessed with more that I'd ever imagined, so I can manage a year off. So with that sentiment, I'm officially letting the 2008 Great Plains season go. The nice thing about getting older is how days, weeks and months get shorter every year - and spring of 2009 will be here quickly enough.

So with that, we'll officially 'sign off' on the chase expedition blog until April of next year.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2008 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of April 21 April-June 1% No trip 99%

Back in the game

LINK: Storm Chasing Guide Services

With every problem comes an eventual solution. I've been considering doing this for several years, but for some reason never decided to move on it until now. I've received many emails over the years asking about this type of service, but the 'light bulb' never really came on until this week. If this works out, chase expeditions to the Plains will be a regular thing!

So give this a look - and if you've got that friend who's always wanted to go tornado chasing (or if you're that person yourself), pass the word along!

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2008 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of April 25 April-June 50% No trip 50%

Greensburg anniversary, 2-week forecast

Exactly one year ago at this time (around 3PM CDT or so), I was driving eastbound on Highway 54 through the town of Greensburg, Kansas, on my way to a small area of surface convergence / cumulus that had popped up west of Wichita. I don't remember much about my short few minutes breezing through there, as with most of the hundred or so small Plains towns I've seen. Of course I had no idea of what was to happen about 5 hours later. I wish now I had least snapped a photo of something in the town (like the 'Big Well' water tower), as I normally do when I see an interesting landmark along the road.

So on to the outlook for the next 2 weeks. The GFS has flipped around on its mid-month Hudson Bay vortex forecast, and is now showing a large western trough moving into the Plains around a week from this Wednesday. That's as dramatic a change as you can get, which as you should know by now, is no surprise with a long-range model. The big trough has been there, in some form, for the past 4 consecutive runs now - lending some credibility to the forecast.

GFS 500mb forecast for May 15

With us now entering the heart of the Plains tornado season, such an upper-level pattern will likely have ample low-level cooperation with moisture, lift and winds near the surface - in other words, a pattern that means 'time to go chasing'.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2008 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 4 May 9-25 30% May 26-June 15 50% No trip 20%

No help from the models

And down the next hill on the roller coaster. The long-range models really have been doing poorly so far this month, to the point that they are nearly useless. Most would say they are useless anyway - but at least some of the time you can glean a large-scale pattern hint from them if they are consistent. No such consistency exists now, leaving the next two weeks a total guessing game. Here is the latest flip-flop from the GFS, showing a dismal pattern for most of the USA by mid-week next week:

GFS 500mb forecast for May 16

The good news is that I've figured out a way to all but ensure at least one 2 to 4 day chase trip to the Plains this season (barring any big surprises). However, my forecast criteria for embarking on an expedition will be very strict. Only a multi-day setup with strong, surefire parameters all around (upper air, surface moisture, low-level winds) will get my attention. Any setup with just one critical ingredient in question will not get my green light. I'm looking for patterns like May 3-10 in 2003; May 21-29 in 2004; June 10-12 in 2004; June 7-12 in 2005 or May 4-5 in 2007 - setups that produced tightly clustered tornado events (in time) that had little question of the right ingredients coming together. Typically we get at least one of those every chase season, but sometimes (like in 2002 and 2006) there are none to be seen. The latest update to the probability table reflects this higher criteria standard, as well as the forecast uncertainty (thanks to the models' performance lately).

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2008 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 6 May 9-25 20% May 26-June 15 40% No trip 40%

Hard times for chasers

Up to this point, spring 2008 has not been going too well for storm chasers. So far this season, most of the promising setups have been either major disappointments, or outside of the Plains altogether. Aside from a half-decent trough showing up early next week (which actually looks too far south right now to be of much consequence), the models keep painting an uninteresting picture for the next couple of weeks.

And as if hail dents, long drives, high gas prices and uncooperative weather patterns weren't enough, it looks like chasers have a new hazard to watch out for this year: getting arrested! Chasers in general (and photographers/cameramen too for that matter) have been seeing an increase in hostility by a few rogue law enforcement entities in recent years - partly due to the post-September 11 climate, but more often than not due to irrational overzealousness on the part of specific officers. Granted, there are a few bad apples in our own ranks that don't help things for us (reckless drivers, traffic-blockers and post-tornado devastation gawkers). But this latest incident (involving a chaser being ordered to move from a parking spot in a rest area while they observed a storm) shows that the worst can happen to any of us. I guess the only thing we can do is keep our cameras rolling at all times, so a full record of everything that happens before, during and after can be our advocates in court. That's partly the reason why I run a full-time dashcam in my car, whether I'm chasing or not.

So back to the upcoming pattern. Things look plenty unsettled as the jet stream wiggles around in mid-country, but no major troughs mean that a nice, organized easy-to-intercept system is not on tap for chasers. Even here in Charleston, the large-scale upper pattern will be supporting little more than cloudy skies, cool temps and off-and-on rain for at least a week. It's going to be a good time to work inside and get a few things done - which is usually a blessing in disguise. Again, we are still very early in the peak season, which runs through about mid-June - so there is plenty of time for things to change. At this stage, I don't see a trip happening until at least the 18th.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2008 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 8 May 9-18 10% May 19-31 25% June 1-15 25% No trip 40%

Tornado outbreaks this weekend - outside of the Plains!

SPC severe storm risk (left) and tornado risk (right) for Saturday

The first true 'big' tornado event of the spring 2008 season looks to commence today and continue into tomorrow - but only a sliver of it within the traditional 'tornado alley'. The mid-Mississippi valley and southern US states instead will be under the gun, something that has been common so far this year. Today's pattern favors a significant tornado outbreak from Arkansas to the Gulf Coast, with strong upper-level winds and deep moisture at the surface. The outbreak should move into the southeast states of Georgia and Alabama on Sunday as the system moves offshore into the Atlantic.

The setup looks great and the chances of seeing tornadoes are fairly high - but I decided to sit this event out. First of all, I would have needed to make the call to go no later than yesterday afternoon, in order to make it in time. I hesitated too long to make the 15-hour drive to the AR/OK border. Second, while this may turn out to be a two-day event across the south, its wide footprint between the two days means that one would likely not be able to cover both days (with sufficient sleep in between) due to the long distances between them. I figured a probable path that I would have ended up taking would have been starting in western Arkansas along I-40 this morning, then working my way eastward through Memphis and ending up in Nashville, TN or Birmingham, AL. From there, I may have had time for 3 or 4 hours of sleep before trucking on to Georgia for Day 2, then ending up in Raleigh to round out the trip. That would end up being over 3,000 miles total - and at 400 miles per tank of gas, that would end up being a $550 fuel expense.

Now I'm an advocate of chasing outside of the Great Plains, because success can be had wherever a good setup materializes. But I've only got funding to make one solo trip this year, so I have to choose wisely. While there will be chaseable tornadoes this weekend, my budget dictates a choice to wait for another setup in better territory.

The models have seemed to line up in agreement of a big east coast trough forming later next week, after another round of southern US severe weather events. So, it's looking like any trip will be at least well into the later half of the month.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2008 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 10 May 10-25 15% May 26-June 15 40% No trip 45%

A tale of two models

GFS 500mb forecast for May 25

Two popular long-range forecast models I watch with regularity are the GFS and the ECMWF (the 'European' model), both with output to ten days (the GFS goes out to 14). As you've heard me say a million times, long range models are notoriously erratic the farther out you go, so much so that some meteorologists and chasers refuse to even look at them. However, if the same pattern forecast shows up over and over again each time the model is run, this consistency indicates a better probability that the forecast may actually have a chance of happening. Now - once a model is consistent over a period of days, then you compare its output to a 'competing' model. If they are in even slight agreement, then you've got an even more confident forecast (relatively speaking, as you'll rarely use the word 'confident' in any discussion of long-range forecasts).

The past few days, both the GFS and the ECMWF have been remarkably consistent in their forecasts. That's good, right? Well normally yes, but not this time - for late next week, they are (consistently) forecasting completely opposite patterns for the continental US - something I haven't seen in the time I've been chasing! The GFS wants to shut down the 2008 chase season, keeping a huge eastern trough and northwesterly flow over the Plains. The ECMWF, however, wants to bring a week of dream chase days, placing a huge western trough in a place that will ensure tornadoes happening daily somewhere in the central US.

When models are so consistent and yet so diametrically opposed to each other, there is little that a chaser can do but just wait. Eventually, one of the models will concede to the other's pattern. So which one win the battle this time? The European model is the favored one in situations like these, but such a strong signal on the GFS for the opposite to happen can't be ignored.

As for my chase plans - as you've seen, the DSLR won out this week over a trip. That will do it for my Plains chasing budget this spring, and therefore also my plans for an expedition. The tour option is still open - and therefore I'll still leave that possibility reflected in the departure probabilities.

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2008 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 15 May 9-25 2% May 26-June 15 8% No trip 90%

A light at the end of the eastern trough?

GFS 500mb forecast for May 24

To the joy of chasers across the Plains, the GFS model is finally starting to show signs of losing its argument with the ECMWF model. The European model continues to be steadfast about the return of a western trough and a good chasing pattern starting next week. It's still too early to get too overly excited, but the signs so far have been encouraging.

Slashed tour rates: With us being over the halfway mark for the 2008 chase season and with a good pattern starting to show up on the horizon, I've temporarily priced the guided tour services to sell! At the late-season rate of $20 a day, the data services alone are worth the guide fee. This pricing option won't be available next year, so if you or someone you know has considered a chase trip of their own, this is your opportunity!

Based on the current outlook, this probability table charts the chance of our trip starting on a particular date:

2008 Chase Expedition - Departure Date Probability as of May 16 May 9-25 20% May 26-June 15 20% No trip 60%