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Sunday, April 13, 2008 - 12:41PM 
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Snow forecast update
We'll have the precip, the 850mb temps will be well below freezing, and snow will be reaching the ground in Charleston overnight tonight. The question remains, what will the surface temps do? A drop below freezing will mean icy bridges - but if we can stay above 32°F, there will be no problems. The models have been warming us slightly with each subsequent run, with today's midday (12z) runs putting us in the 34-36°F range for lows.
GFS surface freezing line for dawn Thursday
WRF/NAM surface temps for dawn Thursday
My primary concern with tonight is if the snows are heavy enough, the surface may be able to cool below what is forecast. The models show a pretty healthy upslope pattern with the mountains seeing good snowfall rates. Whether or not the lower elevations (including Charleston) will see part of that remains to be seen. So I'm still on the fence about going back to Charleston - tonight's 00z models runs and surface obs will show what I'll need to do.
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