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Sunday, March 14, 2010 - 1:39PM CST

Next possible chase event: March 19-20

I've been watching, with some interest, an upper trough shown by the past few runs of the GFS and Euro models to affect the Plains and/or Midwest next weekend. The GFS had been the faster of the two models, showing the system being a Friday event - while the Euro kept it a later show, around the Saturday afternoon time frame. The latest run of the GFS has placed the event more on Saturday in the Mississippi Valley - and if this actually comes to pass as shown, it could be a very potent outbreak.

Keep in mind that this is still 5-6 days out, a long time when dealing with models - and the details/specifics are nearly impossible to nail down this far out. However, let's look at the possible scenario painted by the latest GFS run (12z today), which would place a chase target somewhere from southern Illinois down through western Tennessee and Kentucky:

First, a trough with strong mid/upper jet streak:

GFS 500mb pattern for Saturday

This overtop of a nose of dewpoints in the 50s:

GFS dewpoints for Saturday

...and a strong surface low with backing winds in the warm sector:

GFS surface for Saturday

All of these are solid ingredients for a tornado event if any semblance of this pattern actually takes place. Again, this 'target' could a.) shift 500 miles in any direction as the event draws closer, b.) end up as a non-tornadic squall line due to forcing being too strong or c.) vanish altogether. At any rate, it is definitely something to watch for next weekend. A winter storm is also possible on the back side of this system as it moves east. I'll be posting more updates on the forecast as the potential event draws closer.

Saturday, March 13, 2010 - 4:12PM CST

Week in pictures; 2 month mark

I'm a little past the 2 month mark of being moved in here in the St. Louis area, and everything is going well. The apartment and town is a quiet place (aside from the trains, which of course I'm OK with). In fact, I heard an ambulance last week, and realized I hadn't heard one siren since I got here in January! It feels great to make the even normally mundane errands surrounded by the huge sky and flat land that I love to see. For the most part, I haven't been able to venture outside much for leisure (thanks to the brutal winter), but that's about to change. This evening I'm heading to a bike shop to get 'slick' tires for my mountain bike, which will make it easier to ride on the roads. Once the weather allows, I plan to use my bike as a primary mode of transportation around town, as well as go on one or two-hour rides at least two or three times a week. Back at my WV house, a huge hill (in all directions) was a psychological barrier to riding regularly - the thought of having to come back up that mountain at the end of a ride was a motivation-killer. Now that I'm surrounded by flat land, I don't have an excuse to not get out and ride.

Changing the subject - here are a few photos from this past week that don't fit anywhere else and wouldn't typically warrant their own post otherwise:

Oklahoma/Kansas state line near Baxter Springs, KS on Wednesday. Being in these two states this week marks my 10th straight year of making it to the Plains region in the spring. Hopefully there will be many more to come.

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Not all of Kansas is flat! Yes, this is actually Kansas here - extreme southeast KS, near Baxter Springs. You might be suprised to learn that many parts of eastern OK and KS are like this. Though there are still flat areas around here, the 'classic' Great Plains landscape (flat, treeless prairie for as far as you can see) doesn't really start until you get to the I-35 corridor (around Oklahoma City and Wichita).

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I saw what I first thought was a contrail-distrail combination at the 'anvil cirrus' altitude near Springfield, MO on Wednesday. However, it looks like the black streak is from a separate exhaust, as the trails twist around each other.

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Morning rush hour in downtown St. Louis just before 7AM, on the way to a storm chase target on Wednesday. Inbound traffic is not too bad coming in from the east, the only backups I've seen are here at the Poplar Street bridge (the I-70/I-64 Mississippi crossing). Morning rush traffic seemed a lot worse on the other highways around the city - I-270 (on the west side of town) was pretty bad when I passed it.

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The 'walk in the woods' was one aspect of chasing that the movie "Twister" was right about. GPS sofware often doesn't make a distinction between paved/unpaved roads - or even passable/impassable, often to a chaser's chagrin. This is near Baxter Springs, Kansas on Wednesday. I wasn't stuck here, I just stopped to take a picture because I thought it was a classic storm chasing GPS moment. It's times like this that I'm thankful for the high ground clearance of a truck.

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Sunrise last Thursday near Mascoutah, with some blackbirds. The majority of our sunrises/sunsets have looked like this lately.

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Westbound Norfolk Southern train at the County Line Road crossing in New Baden, again with the ubiquitous blackbirds:

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Good pics; nice vignettes; and superb usage of "ubiquitous". Welcome to the great Midwest!
- Posted by Karisa

In regard to GPS software showing paved/unpaved roads properly, it is not intended to do so. It bases roads on whether they are federal, state, or locally maintained. Locally maintained roads, whether paved or not, will all show up as "local" roads.
- Posted by Scott

Scott, thanks for the info - never heard that before. Just a little weird that the gray lines can mean anything from a 70mph two-lane highway to a rutted path in the woods only passable via ATV.
- Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL

Thanks Karisa! I think that's the first time "vignettes" has been used here too!
- Posted by Dan Robinson from New Baden, IL

Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 12:33PM CST

March 10 chase photos and video

HD CHASE VIDEO: 3/10 storms in SW Missouri

While I crossed briefly into Kansas and Oklahoma yesterday, I spent the majority of my time in southwest Missouri. I didn't see much, a disappointment considering the potential this system had up until the morning of. Notwithstanding, it was great to get out into the warm air and be around storms again for the first time since the winter season began.

I planned for an initial morning target of Joplin, expecting to move west or southwest from there. The play of the day was supposed to have been the surface low that was developing and moving up from southwest Oklahoma, but early storms and rain prevented destabilization near the low. Stronger instability was developing to the east in Missouri, but low-level wind fields there were less favorable for tornadoes. Since the low play was looking shot and was another 2 hours or so west of Joplin, I chose the instability - and ended up following storms home the rest of the evening.

After struggling for most of the afternoon, storms finally begain intensifying after around 5PM. This is one storm near Carthage, just southeast of Joplin, MO. Despite being tornado-warned and looking ominous, it was blasting outflow and not visibly rotating. Chasers who were inside of this experienced a deluge of hail that covered the roads.

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Panorama:

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Lightning north of Mount Vernon, MO:

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I stayed with the storms all the way back home on I-44, stopping a few times to attempt lightning photography. For the most part, there was too much rain to set up cameras. When I arrived back in St. Louis, I set up at the television towers near Afton for upward lightning. One flash to one of the towers occured before I got parked and set up, but non occured afterward. I arrived back home just after 2AM.

nice shots did you come as far south as Neosho
- Posted by Danny Gordon from Granby MO

Thanks Danny, I was in Neosho for a few minutes yesterday. I came in from Wyandotte, OK and then went north on 71.
- Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL

Great shots Dan!
- Posted by Dann Cianca from Centennial (Greenwood Park), Colorado

Thanks Dann!
- Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 5:37AM CDT

Day 1: Southwest Missouri/southeast Kansas

Update 2:05AM CDT Thursday: Home after 26 hours awake and 21 on the road. Possibly a chase tomorrow if I feel rested. Photos and video to come.

Update 5:37AM CDT Wednesday: Departing New Baden/STL and heading west on I-44 in the next few minutes. Preliminary target is Joplin, MO - will likely move west into KS or southwest into OK from there as data dictates. A little concerned from IR sat loop and latest RUC that the low may be tracking further south than expected.

Posted 12:08AM CDT Wednesday: I never imagined I'd be starting my 2010 Plains tornado season blog this early, but when a good opportunity arises, I have to take it! A potent tornado setup is shown by models taking place in the tri-state region of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri on Wednesday afternoon. A combination of instability, moisture, upper support and a surface low will combine to create favorable conditions for supercells from mid-afternoon Wednesday into the overnight hours. The potential exists for several strong tornadoes if one or two supercells can remain isolated through the evening and after dark. As the night progresses, a strong squall line should develop and head northeast toward the St. Louis area.

Since this event falls well within my new extended home chase area, it's an easy decision to jump on it. I plan to leave at dawn with an arrival in my 'staging area' target of Joplin, MO by noon. This chase has the potential to lead me eastward through the night, with hopefully not much of a drive needed to get home after all is said and done. This is definitely a chase opportunity made possible by living in St. Louis - not one I'd be likely to try from WV. I will update this blog when I can, but I will put a greater priority on channeling updates through the Facebook and Twitter feeds.

Dan, maybe we will run into you this afternoon. My chase partner and I are about to head towards the eastern half of AR...going through the morning data as we speak...
- Posted by Clarence from Nashville

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