Monday, March 8, 2010 - 8:20PM CST   
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2010 season - here we go
UPDATES: stormhighway.com Facebook Page (more on this below)
An unexpectedly more active pattern than anticipated is upon us. Wednesday and Thursday are looking like not only thunderstorm days, but the first 'real' chase days of the season for the Midwest. Models show that instability, moisture, good upper support and a surface low pressure in the vicinity may be present, all ambient ingredients for possible severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. The details are yet to be resolved, but here are just a few quick NAM model images:
Dewpoints shown in the 50s up to St. Louis:
NAM dewpoints for Thursday
Instability:
NAM CAPE for Thursday
Upper support:
NAM 500mb winds for Thursday
Surface low and backed winds:
NAM surface for Thursday
Wednesday looks like a potential event to the west and south of here, which could also lead to a chase day. The best parameters may be in eastern Oklahoma, which is a little too far to drive considering an event may take place here at home the next day. Stay tuned!
Facebook Page
UPDATES: stormhighway.com Facebook Page
I've had a Facebook page set up for this site for some time now, and plan to start using it with higher frequency this season. If you have a Facebook account, you can join this page without actually having to be on my private friend list. The idea behind this is to keep weather-related updates in their own area, so that (1) non-Facebook friends can interact and (2) I don't impose too much weather content on my private Facebook page for non-chaser friends who may not care to read it.
I also set up the Facebook page to automatically simul-post to my Twitter account, in case you're a more frequent user of that service.
 | hi you are my biggest storm fan
- Posted by kevin from siouxlookout .ON |  |  | |
Sunday, March 7, 2010 - 5:55PM CST
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First convection of 2010
With surface temps topping 66°F, some weak low-topped convection passed over New Baden this afternoon, ushering in the first chase of the year. Not much of an event, but great to get out and breathe in the fresh air after a long winter. I followed the last cell in the cluster to Albers, about 6 miles east - but didn't pursue any farther due to their rapid eastward movement (at least 65mph). No lightning with these cells, but occasional pea-sized hail mixed in with the rain. A faint rainbow appeared as the sun broke through to the west, and a classic Midwest/Plains golden sunset occupied the drive back.
Looking west from New Baden:
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Some pea-sized hail mixed in here:
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Rainbow and blackbirds (still everywhere):
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Wide view looking east at Albers:
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Driving west toward home on Highway 161:
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Sunday, March 7, 2010 - 2:59AM CST
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More spring hope; upcoming season notes
As temps surpass 60°F for the first time since November and some weak thunderstorms pass by about an hour to my north this afternoon, I've got the living room window open reading the 12z models (the 'morning' outputs) - which paint an increasingly nicer scenario for the coming week. While a large eastern trough is taking shape for later next week, it is associated with a southern stream jet - with the northern stream way up in Canada, keeping the Arctic air confined far to the north of the US. This means that despite another bout of northwest flow over the central US, there is no truly cold air close enough for this system to pull down, and therefore no threat of winter weather for the foreseeable future. The sun angle is also our friend here, working harder and harder to keep temperatures from the freezing point despite any cold upper pattern.
GFS 500mb pattern for Saturday
The moisture and warmth continue to move northward. The latest temps forecast by both the NAM and GFS show the warmup, with several small chances for convection each day. Right now, Wednesday seems to hold the best potential for thunderstorms in the St. Louis area, with some instability showing up to the west in the afternoon.
NAM temperatures for Wednesday
NAM CAPE for Wednesday
For chasing, this pattern isn't anything to get excited about - but it's a sign that we truly are in the 'meteorological spring' season of change.
Upcoming season notes
- We're only a little over 3 weeks away from April 1, the more 'official' start of tornado season when I start gearing up for the annual journeys out to the Plains. Sometime around that point I'll bring back the
 'chase season' sub-blog for 2010. This season will probably feature at least one or two multi-day expeditions made more feasable by the shorter drive.
- As with most pre-seasons, there are several chase-related work items I need to perform on my truck - and if all goes as planned, this will take place at the Raleigh house sometime in the next few weeks. The house is going on the market soon, and as such this will be the last 'Raleigh clean-out and vehicle reconfiguration' at that location. The main items for Raleigh include:
- Hardwiring in the old power console. I still have the 7500-watt inverter rig I built for my Freestyle, but I hadn't installed it in the Ranger yet due to me not wanting to drill holes and do permament mods to my new truck. Well, after a year, the 'new vehicle' complex has faded in favor of necessity. My small inverters aren't handling the laptop very well, and the cigarette plug contacts are beginning to have issues. The idea is to attach hooks to the old rig and simply hang it on the panel under the rear window - at least that's the plan. Then, I'm running heavy guage wire up to the fuse panel for a dedicated/fuse-protected power connection, freeing up the cigarette plugs and getting all of the wires back behind the seats. The setup will essentially be the same as I had back in my Freestyle.
- Perma-mounting the Jotto desk. I currently have the Jotto attached to the seats using steel cables and turnbuckles, just like a guyed radio tower. This avoided having to drill holes in the floor, but it's not very stable. The cables stretch when the laptop load is attached, and after a long day of use, it becomes wobbly.
- Redesigning the dashcam mount. My present mount supported the camera only by the tripod screw. A few months ago, after a year of constant use, the vibrations proved too much and the tripod screw broke away from the camera base. Now it is held in place with velcro adhesive, which is not holding well. The plan is to add a rigid frame to the mount to hold the camera at the top and at the bottom.
- Weather instruments. I'm undecided about whether I want to install a couple of my OS wireless instruments and its display panel. I'd like to at least have temp/humidity sensors. This is a lower-priority task that I'll only complete if I have the extra time.
Thursday, March 4, 2010 - 3:40PM CST
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Blackbird insanity: Millions of birds in Mascoutah, IL
HD VIDEO 1: March 4 - Millions of blackbirds (at sunrise)
HD VIDEO 2: March 3 - Millions of blackbirds (at sunset)
This is a consolidation of blog posts on the Blackbird flock in southwestern Illinois near St. Louis - photo galleries are below
On Tuesday, March 2nd, I decided to try out a grocery store I hadn't yet been to in the town of Mascoutah, which is about 6 miles southwest of New Baden. (Mascoutah is in St. Clair County, about 20 miles east of downtown St. Louis.) The 'county road grid' here is paved and well-maintained, in this case making those roads a faster route than taking the Interstate. On the way past the bare cornfields, I encountered a huge flock of several thousand blackbirds, more numerous than anything else I'd seen in nature before. I spent the next 45 minutes following and shooting photos of this mass of birds. I was impressed enough with it that I decided to return the next day for more photos.
On the evening of Wednesday the 3rd, I found a similar-sized flock of birds and followed them as they flew west. The prairies of Illinois consist of flat, open farmland that is mostly devoid of trees until you encounter a river, stream or lake. In this case, Silver Creek, which runs north-south just west of Mascoutah, is one of the more wooded spots in the area. When I reached Silver Creek, I ran into 'blackbird armageddon'. This made what I'd seen the day before seem like nothing. Literally millions of birds were flying southward along the creek in a single, unbroken mass about a quarter mile wide, flowing like a river in the sky. Photos didn't do this justice, so I shot several minutes of video (video link #2 above). The 'river of birds' was in progress when I got to the creek, and flowed continuously for at least 10 minutes afterward.
I found some sources online that said that the birds would leave their roost at sunrise in an even more abrupt mass than the craze at sunset, so I returned to Silver Creek at around 5:45AM CST on the morning of the 4th to wait for the show. The sources I'd read were exactly right - the rush of birds was even more intense than the evening before. The video of this (video link #1 above) tells the story more than anything. The video starts at Silver Creek near Mascoutah just before sunrise, and follows the flock as it moves northeastward into the prairies toward New Baden. As the stream of birds passed over, many would land in the trees until the limbs were filled to capacity. Then, thousands of these birds would take off simultaneously with a loud roaring sound that you would never expect small birds to be able to make.
In all, this was an amazing experience that will rank high on the list of the things I've seen in nature.
Photo Gallery
From March 3rd and 4th (click thumbnails to enlarge):
  
  
This was the first flock I saw on Tuesday the 2nd, flying westward between New Baden and Mascoutah. At the time, I thought that even this size of a flock was impressive (click thumbnails to enlarge).
  
  
  
  
  
| You should collect guano and sell it!
- Posted by Dann Cianca from Centennial (Greenwood Park), Colorado | | | |
I've seen flocks like this a few times but not many. Mesmerizing to see them in flight and how they will uniformly change direction/formation on a dime. Would make for a great video opportunity.
- Posted by Paul from Decatur, IL | | | |
I've heard these birds every morning for the past week or two, but have never looked to see what they are doing at sunrise. I went out this morning to look, and they have been literally taking over the entire town. There are birds in every tree. They aren't 'swarming' in dense packs but are spread out more - in the fields, trees, everywhere. From what I've read, this is a daily routine for them in the winter. I've only heard them outside in the mornings for about a week or so now, so they must be in migration mode, passing through.
- Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL | | | |
I will probably try going out in the evenings a couple of times this week to shoot them again. Definitely would make for some interesting video.
- Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL | | | |
Love all the pics Dan! Red-winged blackbirds arriving here in New England is always one of my first and favorite signs that spring is on the way. Keep your eyes open for yellow-headed blackbirds and grackles (will have a longer, boat-shaped tail) in the mix. Keep the pics coming!
- Posted by Katie from Melrose, MA | | | |
Truly amazing. I think I would have cried to see so many birds.
- Posted by Katie from Melrose, MA | | | |
Thanks for posting! Must've been almost numbing to be in the midst of this
- Posted by Rick from Massachusetts | | | |
Unbelievable footage! I suppose these are redwings but the closeup of one looked like a rusty! Must have been quite an experience!
- Posted by Kirk from Massachusetts | | | |
You will get to see that twice in the year, :) Spring and fall.... We went down to the wildlife refuge down by the lock and dam in Alton and saw tons of geese and swan migrating through, plus its a great area for viewing the bald eagles.
Tara
- Posted by Tara | | | |
Thanks for the comments everyone. This was definitely an awesome experience.
- Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL | | | |
Monday, March 1, 2010 - 5:11AM CST
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Annual March 1 post - 2010 edition
We've made it - it's the day that is like a national holiday to me and to many chasers. The start of meteorological spring today marks the 'beginning of the end' for the 2009-2010 winter season. While "official" spring is based on the date of the equinox, meteorological spring is based on the start of the climatological transition period between winter and summer weather patterns, which lasts from March 1 to June 1. Meteorological spring features an active jet stream across the USA that slowly moves north, bringing warmer temperatures, higher thunderstorm frequencies and the world's most prolific tornado season with it. March 1 is like the cavalry arriving with a trumpet blast, starting the atmospheric battle that we all know will end in victory.
The upcoming chase season will be one of firsts for me in many ways. First and foremost is being based in the St. Louis area, which opens the door for possibilities I've never had before - the ability to chase with greater frequency in more tornado-prone areas. My home chase range now includes part of the Great Plains region, and I'm in a position to pursue virtually any Midwestern event at a lower-than-ever cost. I'm very excited about the upcoming months and what they may bring!
First spring chase forecast
So now that it's March, what's the first week of storm season looking like? In my last post, I discussed the models' suggestion of the first Gulf moisture surge and coincident thunderstorm event for the central US occuring next weekend. For the most part, that is still a possibility - with signs pointing to a strong western troughing configuration. It looks like this is going to be spring's first 'warm surge', but unfortunately short-lived and probably not much of a severe weather maker. Here is the latest GFS model forecast for next Monday:
Strong 500mb trough moving in, although too far south to be a big player for severe weather in the Plains and Midwest - very typical for early March:
GFS 500mb chart for Monday morning, March 8
Moisture is definitely coming back, but not much to speak of yet. Only a narrow nose of 50°Fs to work with to start Monday:
GFS dewpoints for Monday morning, March 8
The precip forecast makes it look like a squall line that starts in the Plains and begins breaking up as it moves into the Midwest.
GFS precip for Monday morning, March 8
The low is shown likely occluding and keeping its best wind shear influences west of the warm sector. This would suggest a remote cold-core possibility if the low avoids being 'vertically stacked' and any clearing can take place near the low center:
GFS surface pressure/wind, March 8
Again, this is still very far out in model range terms, and even now, it doesn't look like much of an event yet. Moisture is surging north, but not quite enough for what I'd consider for something chaseable. Speaking of moisture: the Gulf of Mexico, the fuel source for virtually all Plains/Midwest thunderstorms and severe weather, is still reeling from this brutal winter. Sea surface temps are still very cool, which will slow evaporation rates and attendant low-level moisture depth/quality:
Latest Gulf sea surface temps
I'm not sure how much the GFS model above takes into account the Gulf SSTs, a question that could have big implications for the upcoming dewpoints situation. We'll just have to watch soundings near the Gulf coast to verify if the air is getting 'juiced up'.
Depending on the position of the upper trough and track of the attendant low, I do think that some lightning from the Plains through parts of the Midwest is likely on Sunday and Monday - as at least meager ingredients will be there (dynamics and at least limited moisture). Temperatures in the warm sector of this system are not shown getting much above the 50s outside of the Plains and north of the I-40 latitudes, however. That's a little disappointing for those north of an I-70 latitude wanting a day to get outside and do something. If the trough slows down a little, allowing for a longer period of southerly flow, temps/moisture/storm chances will improve everywhere.
The lone area that may end up having the best shot for tornadoes/supercells with this system is extreme south Texas into northeastern Mexico. This region is usually where spring tornado season begins first, as it is the first region to see a dryline with the juxtaposition of deep moisture and good upper support.
March storm systems like this have a downside - that is, their 'cold' side. This time of year, these systems usually feature not only thunderstorms and warmth on their leading end, but a winter storm and cold surge on their trailing side. As this trough passes and cold northwest flow resumes, potential for widespread winter weather also returns. However, the higher sun angle will be increasingly working against the longevity and depth of cold spells/snow cover from this point on.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010 - 3:40PM CST
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Deep winter may be ending!
As I've posted before, I have been watching long-range models with great anticipation for signs of spring, and I think we've finally got something on the horizon. The current pattern that we're in could be the last of 'deep winter' conditions this season, that is, for the mid-latitudes of the USA: lows in the single digits/teens, highs only in the 20s-30s and weekly/biweekly snowfalls. In an average year, we see this stage of winter ending by mid-February, with temps already beginning their climb by March 1. We seem to be 2 to 3 weeks behind that this year, with brutal 'deep winter' conditions lasting right up to and possibly beyond March 1. Not out of the ordinary, but seemingly unusual compared to the past 10-15 years or so.
The glimmer of hope I see on the models right now is a breakdown of the 'death grip' N-NW flow patterns that have pummeled the USA with a constant stream of frigid Canadian/Arctic air. These type of patterns have worked against the seasonal increase in solar heating by continually knocking down any air mass recovery with fresh supplies of high-latitude-originating cold air. Typically by March 1, the higher sun angle has caused a steady increase in surface temps, with only a few lingering hits of cold air and snow here and there. The models seem to agree on the 'winter death grip' pattern changing to either a central US ridge or a western trough by March 7-10. Both of these would mean a warmup for at least the central US states, with the latter possibly bringing the first widespread thunderstorm event to the Midwest and Plains. With either configuration, the model forecast charts show a refreshing picture of warm air surging north.
GFS 850mb chart for Sunday, March 7
We're looking pretty far into the extended range here, which means that the specifics of the pattern will probably not pan out exactly like this. However, there has been some consistency and agreement in recent days about an upcoming pattern change from the current one - and with it being March, a resulting warmup is a reasonable expectation. In the event of a western trough, there is always a remote chance of severe weather - but being in early March, more than likely it will be messy rain/general thunderstorm event lacking deep moisture. Nonetheless, even this will be a welcome sight, and I will definitely be outside taking it in if/when it arrives.
Unfortunately, we know that any significant warmup in early March will not last long. As the upper patterns take on their typical spring volatility, we will see the usual back-and-forth swings between winter and spring until early to mid-April, including the ever-present potential for snow events (some major). What I think the good news is, is that we should finally see the 'brutalness' of this winter moving out by this weekend. For St. Louis and Charleston, WV latitudes, this should mean 1.) high temps finally staying above 45 most days with some 50s appearing more and more; 2.) disappearing snowpacks, 3.) no more Arctic air outbreaks, and 4.) any further cold spells lasting only a day or two.
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